Discussing the Trreb May Real Estate Numbers

June 14, 2022

Key points:

  • Year-over-year numbers show price increases in the GTA, but month-over-month data shows a decrease in many areas.
  • Despite rate increases and inflation, demand for buying is still strong in Toronto.
  • Many buyers in today’s market also have to sell their existing home, which presents a new obstacle.

The May TRREB numbers are in

I recently chatted with Albert Nam, Team Leader at Nama Group Royal LePage Signature Realty, about the TRREB May real estate numbers. We dove into year-over-year and month-over-month trends, where prices are headed, and what it all means for borrowers. Let’s see how things are looking for real estate in Toronto.

Albert Nam’s contact information:

Phone number: (416) 558-9009

Email: albert@royallepage.ca

Website: https://albertnam.com/

Don’t feel like watching? Find the full transcript below!

Chris: [00:00:00] Welcome everybody. Today I am joined by Albert Nam, Team Lead at Nama Group Royal LePage Signature. He is a Toronto based realtor, somebody that I’ve known for a number of years and trusted for a number of years working with our clients together. And he’s joining us today to talk about the freshly released May Toronto real estate numbers. Albert, how are you?

Albert: [00:00:29] Sup, Chris? Thanks for having me on.

Chris: [00:00:31] Yeah, no worries. Good to see you.

Albert: [00:00:33] Trying to do my best impression of a non-awkward person.

Chris: [00:00:37] Doing good so far. Well, you’re screaming fun with that nice shirt. I like that. Well, this, this. I don’t know if this call is going to be fun because the main numbers were just released. Nobody likes to hear that real estate – well, some people who own homes don’t like to hear that real estate values are falling – but I’m really curious to hear from you, what you are seeing in the market and what you’re seeing in the most recent TREB data.

Year-over-year prices are up

Albert: [00:01:08] Yeah, I mean, if if anyone’s looking for comfort and peace of mind at this point, you know, that’s not exactly what what the numbers are going to offer them. I mean, the only comfort right now that we have is that year-over-year we’re still up compared to May 2020, 2021. But what we’re what we’re really interested in right now in terms of tracking are the actual month-over-month numbers since the interest rate news began in February.

Chris: [00:01:39] Do you want to do a screen share?

Albert: [00:01:40] Yeah, I’ll I’ll do a quick screen share. I mean, these are the, so these are the main numbers that we’re looking at. So in May, we had an overall average price in Toronto Real Estate Board of 1.212. That’s this number right here.

Chris: [00:01:58] Okay, I see that.

Albert: [00:02:00] Detached. 9416 was 1.9.

Chris: [00:02:03] Yeah.

Albert: [00:02:04] Detached in 905 was 1.4. Condos at 793. And condo is at 722 in 905.

Chris: [00:02:17] Okay.

Albert: [00:02:18] So I mean that, those numbers in isolation, they’re interesting. But I think, again, what we really want to track is the year-over-year and then the month-over-month numbers.

Chris: [00:02:30] Yes.

Month-over-month prices show decreases

Albert: [00:02:30] So year-over-year, all property types were still up. But but like I said, it’s starting to catch on regardless. So that’s TRREB numbers. I did my own kind of back of the envelope calculation here for month-over-month because I think month-over-month, it requires a bit of manual calculation on our end. So here are the average prices for all that we went through earlier, 1.33 In February, 1.29 in March and so on. So since March, since the news, we’ve seen 2.6 per cent decrease and then 3.5 in April and then another 3.3 in May. As much as we like to think that 416 was not vulnerable in this in this decrease, we did see a steep 7.4 per cent decrease in that first interest rate hike and then leveled off a bit. But it almost seems like it did that steep decline and then it already kind of flattened out. I think this is what the 416 usually does in light of any kind of shifting news is to show resiliency. 416 is always been resilient because of that overall demand. I know like realtors sound like a broken record when we’re like, no, immigration, immigration, that’s what’s going to save the market. But you know what? It’s it’s true to to to a big extent. And it’s not just immigration from international countries. It’s immigration, it’s migration from inter-provincial.

Chris: [00:04:09] So so what it sounds like, I mean, piecing all of this together is we’ve got a few factors. I mean, what’s driving this are rising rates and rising rates are being caused by inflation. The inflation is being caused by stress on the system, primarily due to the conflict in Ukraine, which is impacting oil prices and food prices. And there’s a whole trickle down effect from there. So, but then on the flip side, the demand is there. I mean, I know for myself personally, there are the the interest in buying a home hasn’t gone away. We have clients who are pre-approved and want to buy. You have, in your experience, you’re working with these newcomers to Canada who want to buy. So the demand is there. We just have this uncertainty presently around what the future holds with rising interest rates. And I guess the question is, how do we see this unfolding in the in the months and years to come? I mean, if you had to look at your crystal ball, Albert, what do you what do you think is going to happen? How do you see it playing out?

Demand is strong and properties are selling

Albert: [00:05:24] Oh, I throw away my crystal ball. I, I shattered it during COVID. I didn’t want to deal with it. I’m like, Well, how many wrong predictions can I make? You know, I’m not going to make a prediction. I’m going to tell you what I’m seeing. And so in terms of people wanting to make a move, I have more people than ever. And whereas, during during COVID and before COVID, in an extreme seller’s market, we said, okay, well, let’s not waste any time because the prices seem to be climbing. The few months you wait could be a huge opportunity cost. So let’s, let’s not waste any time and let’s get out there, see a few properties and lock yourself in into something. The difference now is we have to watch for a long time what’s going to happen. And even if buyers are ready and say, I want into this area, I’m okay with paying this price, half of them can’t take action right away because we actually have to sell their property. So there’s that aspect of it too where we can we can we can say like, okay, we’re not going to try to time the market. We’re okay with getting in at this price. But we have this problem of unloading our own house as well. So right now, the people in the best spot to make that decision are are renters and first time buyers.

Chris: [00:07:05] Yeah, absolutely.

Albert: [00:07:08] It might, if you’re looking to get into the suburbs, I think patience is good. You know, you see the you see the trend going down. I mean, I’ve made some offers right now for, on behalf of clients where we’ve priced in like a double digit decrease because we’re saying, oh, we’re going to close in in a couple of months.

Chris: [00:07:28] Right.

Albert: [00:07:29] You see this trend. You know, there’s more interest rate news. So we’re going to try to take a little bit more off the price from whatever the comparables are. But things are selling.

Chris: [00:07:42] Albert, I mean, this is this has been a wealth of information. I really appreciate you taking the time to walk us through this and give us your perspective.

Albert: [00:07:50] Yeah, my pleasure.

Chris: [00:07:51] If anybody would like to get in touch with you or discuss numbers, buying or selling, what’s the best way for them to contact you?

Albert: [00:07:59] They can call me directly at 416 558 9009 or yeah, check out our website, nama real estate dot com.

Chris: [00:08:07] Okay. I’ll include a link in the description.

Albert: [00:08:10] Yeah. Yeah, it has all our contact information there and my direct email is albert@royallepage.ca.

Chris: [00:08:16] Anybody who’s watching this, you see Albert in action. Very thoughtful, very with a lot of experience in terms of how he sees the market and works with his clients. So I recommend anybody get in touch. We’ll wrap up the call there. Albert, thanks so much again. My name is Chris Molder. I’m a Toronto mortgage broker. Until next time. Bye for now.

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